Sean Maloughney: G53: Oilers @ Coyotes - A Wager

McDavid and Draisaitl played well over half the season on the same line

Kinda tired of the banal platitude that is "plus minus is garbage". Plus minus is only garbage if you're dense enough to neglect context (EN goals, bad luck, deployment, etc). If you account for these sorts of things and reflect them in your analysis, there's nothing wrong with it.

This isn't intended to be pointed at Sean; it's just a general statement.

If Nurse's camp is starting at 8, I trust Holland is starting at 5. Meet in the middle at 6.5 and the contract will be fine long term. At that point, it's essentially the Petry/Sekera contract from 5 years ago, but for a guy who would be locked up from ages 24 to 31/32 instead of 27 to 33/34 while being in range of Morrisey's contract from last offseason.

"Correlation does not equal causation."

hahaha - I listen to POTUS too

Kinda tired of the banal platitude that is "plus minus is garbage". Plus minus is only garbage if you're dense enough to neglect context (EN goals, bad luck, deployment, etc). If you account for these sorts of things and reflect them in your analysis, there's nothing wrong with it.

This isn't intended to be pointed at Sean; it's just a general statement.
- MaximumBone

I'll say here I completely agree with you. Unfortunately Plus minus is only garbage if you're dense enough to neglect context (EN goals, bad luck, deployment, etc). If you account for these sorts of things and reflect them in your analysis, there's nothing wrong with it doesn't roll off the tongue as easy for a Key To Victory.

McDavid and Draisaitl played well over half the season on the same line
- APar2008

Draisaitl had 22 points in 11 games on a line with Yamo and RNH. I believe that was going into the Calgary game, where he got 4 more apples.

Why would you make a wager that encourages Tanner to write more? The wager should have been to delete his account and stop blogging here/replying to messages here.
- wreckage

Surprised you did not have any Tide Pods in your wager negotiations there.

McDavid and Draisaitl played well over half the season on the same line
- APar2008

And how does that in any way negate what Draisaitl has done since being separated from McDavid?

Kinda tired of the banal platitude that is "plus minus is garbage". Plus minus is only garbage if you're dense enough to neglect context (EN goals, bad luck, deployment, etc). If you account for these sorts of things and reflect them in your analysis, there's nothing wrong with it.

This isn't intended to be pointed at Sean; it's just a general statement.
- MaximumBone

Nah man, it's a completely goalie dependent stat. It does nothing but tell you which players have a high PDO.

Plus Minus isn't too bad... It gets ripped harder now with "advance stats"

Then again, advanced stats have been used to gloss up some really s****y players too.

Oh Sean, please don't allow Tanner to write about our Oilers. I mean as a hockey blogger the guy is just terrible....and I'm trying to be nice. Remember this is the guy who thinks hand passes should be...ahhh never mind...we all know.

Why would you make a wager that encourages Tanner to write more? The wager should have been to delete his account and stop blogging here/replying to messages here.
- wreckage

THIS!!!!!

Plus Minus isn't too bad... It gets ripped harder now with "advance stats"

Then again, advanced stats have been used to gloss up some really s****y players too.
- Eersel

advanced stats are dumb in general.

The only sport it works for is baseball, because when you're batting, teammates are nonexistent basically.

Chiapett actually scored with the drai contract

Nah man, it's a completely goalie dependent stat. It does nothing but tell you which players have a high PDO.
- James_Tanner

On-ice 5-on-5 goal differential is completely goalie dependent? Team quality, structure and offensive ability exert no influence on it? Quite the extreme claim if that is, in fact, the point you're making.

Considering I've seen you make this statement before, is it fair to assume you have some kind of source for this assertion? Because it runs quite damn near counter to my position that it's goalie results that are impacted more by the quality of team and structure in front of him. It's why a goalie can go from looking like a schlub in one place to looking like a god in another. In fact, it's pretty much the crux of why stats like GSAA exist- to account for how goalies perform behind different systems and defensive quality of team.

The Coyotes were and perhaps are a solid representation of this when guys like Bryzgalov and Smith were made to look like Vezina quality guys when playing behind Tippett's strict, box-defense structure.

As this phenomenon has played out enough times with enough goalies to notice a trend, I'm inclined to lean toward it. It's true these two things aren't mutually exclusive, but the readiness with which you state such a thing necessitates that I try to see your evidence. It's possible you have information I don't, after all.

Further, your position as it's stated above appears glaringly flawed considering how much influence offensive talent and 5-on-5 scoring ability exerts on the half of the stat that's oriented around scoring.

advanced stats are dumb in general.

The only sport it works for is baseball, because when you're batting, teammates are nonexistent basically.
- Oilers4Life14

- MaximumBone

Whoops. When you use Trump (even as a meme) to prove your point, you've automatically failed.

Whoops. When you use Trump (even as a meme) to prove your point, you've automatically failed.
- Copper n Blue

Also

dear lord you must getting into the liquor cabinet to often. I guess having solid defenders would have nothing to do with it or a team whose possession number is high??

Chiapett actually scored with the drai contract
- herecomesGUMP

Yes. Yes he did.

Yes. Yes he did.
- Wildschwein

A blind mule hits its mark once in a while, just crazy looking back on how hated it was.

A blind mule hits its mark once in a while, just crazy looking back on how hated it was.
- herecomesGUMP

Yup.

I thought the deal would age gracefully. Had no idea it’d be a (frank)ing bargain after year 3.

Whoops. When you use Trump (even as a meme) to prove your point, you've automatically failed.
- Copper n Blue

Sounds like the logic of a partisan mouth-foamer indeed.

Bets and wagers of any kind are not permitted in future Blogs!

The moment you start getting over confident the team lets off the gas!